June 3, 2016 by skokielib
My Bernie Sanders “super fan” friends are telling me he’s going to win California. Why? Because they saw a poll that showed Clinton and Sanders statistically tied. However, one poll does not provide the final word. The bulk of the polls still show Clinton with a big lead.
But don’t trust me. Look at the links I’ve provided. Five Thirty Eight says that there is a 96% chance of Clinton winning and with a 15% polling advantage.
Huffington Post shows Clinton with a 12% advantage.
Real Clear Politics shows Clinton with a 9% advantage.
I tend to believe polling averages more than individual polls, because they take more into account. I particularly respect the Five Thirty Eight method because they weight polls based on how they’ve done historically, their methodology, and how recent they are.
Clinton also still shows a big lead in New Jersey in virtually every poll. Again, with all due respect to the Sanders loyalists, just winning California, even if he could pull it off, wouldn’t be enough.
All indications are that, as I’ve been saying for weeks and weeks, this race is over. Remember, even if Bernie Sanders wins California, he’s got to win almost 70% of all delegates going forward. Squeezing out a win by a few percentage points isn’t going to get him what he needs. But even the most favorable polls for Sanders show him statistically tied, NOT with a big win.